A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
